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AUD/NZD - selling now overdone? Following hotter Aussie CPI

Chart & Data from IG

By Minipip
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Following the recent Australian CPI data, the likelihood of the RBA taking a more hawkish approach has somewhat increased. On the other hand, RBNZ is still expected by the market to cut its interest rates two more times before the end of the year. This could provide AUD/NZD with some medium-longer term support as the forex pair has reached a key area shown on the chart. As of right now, the pair is trading at around N$1.0866, with near-term support clearly highlighted using the white oval. We can see that the trendline along with the 200-day moving average is offering great support here so far, with the pair now trying to climb above it after falling to an intraday low of N$1.0798. This low will now play a major role in whether we see another leg down or a leg higher for AUD/NZD. A break below this intraday low will indicate the selling pressure persists, potentially leading to a re-test of the support around N$1.0732. On the other hand, if the pair manages to climb back above the 200MA and close above it, this may provide a setup for a potential rally higher toward N$1.1000. Looking at the technical indicators, the MACD is still within bearish positioning, but the volume is lower than at the start of the month. We can see the RSI is also flatlining even though the price has moved lower.  

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