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GBP/USD - UK election looming

Chart & Data from IG

By Minipip
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UK election looming

Taking a brief look at the current position of the pound ahead of the UK election, which is due 4th of July. Right now, sterling is trading at around £1.2657 against the US dollar. We can see on the daily chart when we apply the Bollinger Bands that it has been grinding lower as the election approaches. Bulls have been sweeping up the dip as the price falls into the lower band, leading to a short-lived bounce before a continuation lower. The lower band is now reading £1.2618, which will act as the near-term support here, a strong move below it would create some concern as it would make the pound more vulnerable to slipping into the area of £1.2500-£1.2550. Especially with US inflation data coming up on Friday, worse-than-expected data may strengthen the dollar further.  On the other hand, the build up to the election may overshadow the inflation data on Friday. Maybe allowing the pair to undergo some consolidation ahead of July 4th. The bulls would need to see a move above £1.2702 for some stability. A move above £1.2702 would set the eyes on £1.2740 and then potentially back to £1.28. the technical indicators are in the bearish territory but the MACD volume has now slightly lowered, though it does run the risk of moving lower. The RSI has also slipped lower now as it reads 43 from the previous 45.  

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