An outline of Trump's prospective second term in office

As the U.S. presidential election of 2024 draws near, pundits are speculating about what may happen, especially if Donald Trump wins a second term.

According to JPMorgan's analysts, a second Trump presidency would result in substantial changes to a number of policy areas, including domestic regulations and foreign relations.

A more assertive foreign policy posture, especially with regard to China, would be one of the main changes that would occur under a Trump 2.0 presidency. JPMorgan notes in its note that Trump's strategy would be motivated by the idea that "America must win and dominate," which would probably lead to a more assertive use of Executive Orders about trade and investment.  

The bank's staff also pointed out that the second term may "result in a more contentious relationship between the US and European Union with adverse consequences for Ukraine."

According to the memo, environmental rules will also be rolled back. Many of the renewable energy measures that the Biden administration put in place are anticipated to be reversed by Trump, who will instead concentrate on reducing the regulatory burden on oil and gas corporations.

Domestically, Trump's government would probably consist of seasoned politicians and supporters rather than some of the more unusual choices made during his first term. This may result in a more simplified and perhaps even more market-friendly governing model.

Under Trump 2.0, tax reduction and deregulation will be prioritised in economic policy. The focus would be on cutting regulatory burdens, slashing corporate taxes, and maybe appointing a new Federal Reserve chair who is in favour of a negative interest rate policy (NIRP).

In the interim, there may be more investment in the infrastructure industry, especially in 5G and conventional infrastructure projects. According to JPMorgan, businesses in the aerospace, defence, aviation, and financial services sectors would receive greater assistance under the Trump government.

Domestically, Trump's government would probably consist of seasoned politicians and supporters rather than some of the more unusual choices made during his first term. This may result in a more simplified and perhaps even more market-friendly governing model.

Per analysts, Trump is still committed to his "Make America Great Again" platform and frequently uses social media for political messaging and campaigning. They stated, "Both sides may have overplayed their hands in how they are addressing it on the campaign trail," but abortion is still a "galvanising issue."

Gen Z is still a sizable voting cohort, but it is also "disillusioned, raising questions about voter turnout, and requiring specific policy appeals", according to analysts.

It is anticipated that the 2024 election will be extremely contested overall, with tight contests in several crucial battleground states. Though the margins are small, recent polling indicates that Trump is up in areas that are important to him, such Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.

(Sources: investing.com, reuters.com)