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Core PCE, income and spending and EU CPI - Final Day of Septemeber

By Minipip
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September finally comes to a close, some may be happy that it's over, some may want one last peek at what is ahead today.

Markets retreated from their gains and ended Thursday’s trading session negatively as the month draws to a close today. Throughout the entire month, the markets have fought all the worries regarding aggressive actions by the Fed to tame inflation. Perhaps, investors are glad that September is finally over.

Tech stocks are receiving a beating due to rising Treasuries as investors flee risker assets. Rising rates are taking the steam of the housing market by pushing borrowing costs close to 7%, twice what they were at the start of the year (investing.com). The strengthening dollar is causing havoc in foreign currencies, although good for our fellow Americans, but not so good for businesses exporting their products abroad.

The next Fed meeting is due in November and analysts are predicting an additional 75bp rate increase (investing.com), making it four in a row! As a result, investors worry that this could push the economy into a recession, especially after the feared GDP results released yesterday.

Key proceedings that may impact the markets today:

  1. Income & Spending
  • Personal spending and personal income data are due to be out released at 13:30 (09:30 US). The month-to-month expectation for August is 0.2% for spending and 0.3% for income (investing.com). Both would be up a mark compared to previous month.
  1.  Personal consumption expenditures
  • The Federal Reserve’s most favourable inflation measure, the PCE, is also due to be released today for August. Experts are estimating the core PCE price index to rise 0.5% compared with 0.1% to the prior month. The YoY estimate is a gain of 4.7% compared with 4.6% to the prior month (investing.com). Data is due to be released at 13:30 (09:30 US).
  1. European CPI number (YoY)
  • The European Union is set to impose additional sanctions on Russia after Putin has announced to host Kremlin ceremony, EU energy ministers are to meet later today to discuss their options (investing.com). But most importantly the Eurozone Consumer Price Index number for September, which could rise close to 10% on annual basis (investing.com), is due to be released at 10:00 (05:00 US).  

An economic calendar shows the planned publication dates of data relating to the economy that have a big influence on the financial markets. The stock markets are a news-driven supply and demand engine; as a result, changes in price are influenced by the announcement of important news or economic events. The economic calendar is used by many traders and investors to carefully manage their trades and portfolio balancing. Economic calendars may be found online for free or on many different databases, such as the Minipip Economic Calendar.

Understanding the economic calendar

Economic calendars often concentrate on the forthcoming economic report schedules for a particular nation. Weekly jobless claims, reports of existing home sales, scheduled interest rate changes or interest rate signalling, regular reports from the Federal Reserve or other central banks, economic attitude surveys from particular markets, and several others are examples of events that might appear on an economic calendar.

A trader who intends to take a short position may find it mainly advantageous to follow the economic calendar. If the trader predicts the statement's nature accurately, they can place a position just before the planned announcement and terminate it within a few hours.

Indicators that lag

A lagging indicator is a measurable economic variable that moves and changes direction after the target variable has changed (economic cycle). Lagging indicators are utilised by investors, companies, and governmental bodies as signs for their plans and operations. They are used to determine the trend of the general economy.

Examples of such indicators include Corporate Earnings, Interest Rates, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment Rate.

Advancing indicators

An advancing indicator is a measurable economic variable that alters its course and movement prior to the target variable also changing (economic cycle).

Advancing indicators are used to forecast when the economic cycle will shift as well as other important changes to the economy. Investors, companies, and governments utilise leading indicators to plan their plans and operations even if they are not always reliable.

Examples of such indicators include Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Yield Curve and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI).

Economic Calendar Differences

The majority of nations have their own economic calendars and timetables for economic release dates. The economic calendars are freely accessible on a number of financial websites, however, the information and dates on each site may differ.

As the U.S. has such a sizable and significant economy, the majority of industry participants focus their attention on it. Significant national economic events frequently have a substantial effect on all global markets. This is because the United States has the biggest economy in the world. Due to the U.S. dollar's significance as the benchmark reserve currency for all nations, it also plays a crucial role in the global economy.

How often are the economic indicators released?

The majority of the economic indicators are reported monthly. For example, PMIs are reported monthly. An example of a longer period of time is the Federal Reserve, which meets once every two months.

(CFI.com, Investopedia.com)

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