The release of forecasts from OPEC and IEA, as well as a flood of potentially significant economic data scheduled this week, leaves oil prices in focus.

In anticipation of the release of demand predictions from OPEC and the IEA as well as a flood of potentially significant economic data scheduled this week, oil prices declined on Monday, consolidating after last week's big increases.

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency publishes its most recent research on Tuesday, and the International Energy Agency follows suit on Tuesday, with the International Energy Agency's report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations and the

These monthly reports are widely regarded for their analysis of significant events that have an impact on global oil demand trends, but they may be particularly significant this month given the market's focus on the potential recovery of China's oil demand following the country's removal of COVID-19 curbs in late 2022 following years of stringent lockdowns. China is the world's largest crude importer.

Last week, both contracts climbed by over 8%, partly due to growing optimism about an economic revival in China.

"While there is still lots of optimism regarding Chinese demand, in the near term the oil market remains pretty well supplied. As the market tightens, we expect further gains from 2Q23” according to ING analysts.

Data showing that Iranian oil exports reached record highs in the final two months of 2022 despite U.S. sanctions on increased shipments to China and Venezuela provided some indication of this plentiful supply.

According to energy analyst SVB International, Iran's oil exports averaged 1.137 million barrels per day in December, an increase of 42,000 barrels per day from November and the largest amount SVB has estimated for 2022 based on past projections.

However, the news that Turkey closed the crucial Bosphorus Strait to shipping early on Monday after a vessel wedged itself on the banks of the river connecting the Black Sea to global markets may have an impact on supply.

Such problems in the Bosphorus are typically addressed in a matter of hours, but a persistent problem might prohibit Russian oil tankers from travelling through the strait.

Signs that inflation has peaked, notably in the United States, have also contributed to the surge in crude prices and could force the Federal Reserve to scale back its hawkish tightening plans, which would be bad for the value of the dollar.

Oil and other commodities with dollar value are more affordable for international customers thanks to the weakening currency.

On Wednesday, there will be a major data release for this week: U.S. retail sales. They experienced their biggest dip in 11 months in November, and a similar drop in December would heighten hopes that the Fed will scale down its aggressive rate increases to prevent more harm to the economy and, consequently, the demand for petroleum from the world's top consumer.

(investing.com, reuters.com)