JPM – “Trump is predicted by the market to win the US election”

In a note released on Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts stated that the market's current opinion about the US election is that Democrats will win the House, the GOP will win the Senate, and Trump will win the White House.

Nevertheless, a majority of the investment bank's members strongly believe that Congress will stay divided, making it premature to forecast the outcome.

JPMorgan said that a Trump victory would lead to a tougher stance on foreign policy, especially with China, "with a view that 'America must win and dominate' through greater use of Executive Orders surrounding trade and investment." They were sharing their key takeaways from their election outlook analysts.

Furthermore, they point out that Trump might reverse environmental and clean energy policies, whereas a Trump administration would consist of a number of well-known and seasoned politicians in addition to devoted supporters, as opposed to untested outsiders like some first-term candidates.

Moreover, the bank asserts that the most significant factors influencing an election's result are governance strength and track record, which "currently gives Biden an advantage."

But they believe that similar to the tight results of 2016 and 2020, the outcome of the US presidential election in 2024 will depend on a small number of votes in a few crucial swing states—just hundreds.

According to JPM, presidential debates pose risks for both candidates even if they have the potential to persuade undecided voters. It has been observed that Generation Z is a substantial voting group, but they are also disenchanted, which raises concerns about voter turnout and necessitates certain policy appeals.

(Sources: investing.com, reuters.com)