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Stock Market - The Week Ahead

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By Minipip
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Despite a surge in tech stocks, investors are still apprehensive, and market observers will get an update on the future outlook for the global economy.

Eurozone

After information last week revealed that Germany fell into recession in the first quarter, statistics on trade, factory orders, and industrial output are scheduled to be released on Monday and will provide insight into how the German economy fared at the beginning of the second quarter.

The results of the consumer expectation poll, which the ECB will release on Tuesday, will demonstrate if inflation expectations are solidifying.

Monday's testimony by ECB President Christine Lagarde before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs will also be thoroughly reviewed.

Monetary policy decisions

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also hold policy meetings in advance of the Federal Reserve's next meeting as officials in both nations deal with persistent inflation.

After April's inflation statistics increased far more than anticipated, the RBA's meeting on Tuesday could be influenced in any direction.

Rates have already reached an 11-year high following a surprise increase last month, according to RBA governor Philip Lowe, who said he wants to make it clear that the central bank will do everything it takes to defeat inflation.

US Data

The mixed U.S. employment data released on Friday revealed that salary growth slowed in May but job growth picked up. The idea that circumstances in the labour market are improving was strengthened by an increase in the unemployment rate.

The jobs numbers confirmed that the Fed will hold off on raising rates at its forthcoming meeting. The Fed began its vigorous anti-inflation policy tightening more than a year ago, and it would be the first stop since then.

On Monday, the ISM services PMI will be released, and it is anticipated to show a continued strong pace of increase, compared to the manufacturing PMI, which declined for a seventh consecutive month in May.

Other releases include Thursday's initial unemployment claims data and Wednesday's trade statistics.

Stocks

Some investors are becoming more concerned about how much of the market's growth has come from the outperformance of a small number of mega-cap firms, while the rest of the market has stagnated.

The benchmark S&P 500 has up 11.5% year to date and is presently at a 10-month high, while the Nasdaq 100 has increased by 33% so far in 2023.

The market value of the S&P 500 is now accounted for by the combined weight of five stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia. The hype around developments in artificial intelligence is fostering expectations for large future increases.


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