Americans across the country are casting the final ballots in the US midterm elections.

Americans across the country are casting the final ballots in the US midterm elections. President Biden’s Democrat Party is set to lose seats in the Houses of Congress, meaning he will face more opposition to his legislative agenda in the next two years.

How do US elections work?

The US has three branches of governance: the executive (the President), the legislature (Congress) and the judiciary (the Courts). The judiciary is the only unelected body, with Supreme Court justices serving for their whole life until death or retirement and are chosen by the sitting President when a seat becomes vacant. 

The Presidential election occurs every 4 years, with citizens voting directly for the executive. This the electoral college system; each state has a number of electors determined by its population. The electors vote directly for the President based on the results of the general election in that state. There are a total of 538 electoral votes and a candidate needs more than half (270) to win the presidency.

Citizens also cast votes for the legislature, voting for individual Senators and House representatives. The House of Representatives is the lower chamber of Congress. Each state is allocated a different number of representatives based on their population size. The HoR serves a two year term and the entire chamber goes up for reelection every November in even-numbered years. So, the last election for HoR was in 2020 along with the presidential election, and now the whole house is up for reelection in the midterms today.

The Senate is the upper chamber of Congress and comprises 100 members, each state having two senators regardless of its size. Senators serve six year terms and reelections are staggered over even years so that one third of the Senate is up for reelection each time. 35 Senate seats are on the ballot this year.

What’s at stake in the 2022 midterms?

Currently, the Senate is split 50-50 and the House majority is Democratic. A 50-50 split in the Senate is rare, but the Democrats hold the tie breaking vote (Vice President Kamala Harris). Typically, the party controlling the executive loses seats in the midterm elections. Forecasts suggest this will be the case this year, with the Democrats set to lose control of the House as well as the Republican party possibly gaining Senate control. The Republican party is forecast to gain the five seats needed for them to gain control of the House. The Republican party also only needs one seat to gain Senate control; toss up races which could sway the outcome for the Senate in Republican favour include Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.

The main issues for voters this year include high inflation rates, high food and fuel prices, as the US cost of living is at a 40-year high. According to the Guardian, 92% of Republicans see the economy as very important, as opposed to 65% of Democrats. For Democrats, 80% cite the future of democracy, 79% cite healthcare and 75% cite abortion rights as very important issues. Other topics high on Republicans’ list are the standard issues of crime and immigration.

Many see this election as high stakes, given the events of the last two years since Biden’s presidential win. This is the first election since the Capitol Riots on 6 Jan 2021, incited by false claims of a rigged election against former president Donald Trump. Trump was banned from Twitter for emboldening his followers and claiming Biden’s win was “stolen” from him. Many Trump supporters - and therefore many Republican voters - believe the 2020 election really was stolen. Far-right violence seen during the Capitol riots was not an isolated incident, given the attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband (the perpetrator’s intention was to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and break her kneecaps if she lied to him, he told police). Trump has said he will make a “big announcement” today, hinting at his potential re-run for the White House in the 2024 Presidential elections. 

Another big issue at stake is the autonomy of one’s own body, specifically the right to abortion. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v Wade case, ruling there is no constitutional right to abortion. The court’s makeup is right-leaning, as 6 of the 9 justices were appointed by Republican presidents. Many see other fundamental rights as well as abortion - same sex marriage and access to contraception for example - as hanging in the balance, as Biden warned after the Court's abortion decision. Biden has vowed to codify Roe v Wade if the Democrats win the midterm elections with wide enough margins to pass the legislation. During a speech at an event hosted by the Democratic National Committee, he said “I’m asking the American people to remember how you felt that day the extreme Dobbs decision came down and Roe was overturned after 50 years,” Dobbs v Jackson being the case that overturned Roe. He added, “If you care about the right to choose, then you gotta vote.”

Democratic presidents have made similar promises before, but have failed to deliver on codifying the right to abortion. Biden’s last minute vow is widely seen as a play to get more people, particularly women, out to vote blue. All or most abortions are banned in at least 14 states, with several more engaged in legal battles to restrict access. The White House estimates that 26.5 million women of reproductive age live in states with bans or severe restrictions. If the Republicans gain control of both chambers of Congress, any attempt by Biden to fulfil his promise will likely fall flat. 

Biden’s approval rating has been at its lowest in the last month. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on 31 Oct - 1 Nov shows that only 40% of the country approve of Biden’s job performance. In the same poll, 69% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, with only 18% saying it was on the right track. With likely losses facing Biden and the Democratic party later today, it casts a gloomy outlook on a future where fundamental rights risk further erosion, the cost of living plunges more Americans into poverty, and the climate crisis rages on with no provisions. If Donald Trump does announce a bid for the 2024 election, it will add insult to injury and pave the way for his politics - and all of the violence that comes with it - to return, if it ever really left.

(Sources: BBC, The Guardian, Reuters, CNN, Politico)