Would the North Sea oil and gas sector survive with fresh licences?

Political figures have been making wild charges, claiming that if no further licences are granted, 100,000 jobs in Scotland will be in danger.

However, that number is 40,000 more than the whole population of Scotland whose employment is now dependent on the production of fossil fuels, either directly or indirectly.

Furthermore, according to research by BBC Scotland News, new licences might only add five years to the North Sea's lifespan at current production levels.

There are an estimated two billion barrels of "unlicenced" oil left, according to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), which is responsible for issuing licences. 440 million barrels were produced by the sector last year.

Environmentalists have been pushing governments to cease granting exploration licences, which let oil firms look for fresh fossil fuel deposits.

According to the industry, the rate of decline in the sector will quicken in the absence of fresh oil discoveries, endangering jobs.

The North Sea's output peaked twenty-five years ago. Approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil and gas were pumped onshore in 1999.

By 2010, output had fallen to 884 million barrels, and by 2022, it had fallen even lower, to 552 million barrels, a decrease of around 67% from peak levels.

According to government estimates, output would drop to just 58 million barrels by 2050, or 3% of peak production, and then halve again by 2030 to 251 million barrels.

Only approximately two billion of the estimated 10 to 15 billion barrels of oil and gas that the UK still has are in areas for which the UK government has not yet granted exploration licences to operators, according to the North Sea Transition Authority.

The Conservatives and SNP have claimed time and time again during the general election campaign that their opponents are putting 100,000 jobs in Scotland at risk by pledging to stop granting exploration licences.

While the SNP believes that applications should be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, the Conservatives strongly support the continuation of licencing.

Labour has stated that it would no longer provide licences, and the Liberal Democrats think that greater employment opportunities in renewable energy, such as wind power, should take precedence.

According to Offshore Energies UK, the number of persons employed in the oil and gas industry in Scotland is now just 60,700. That figure increases to 120,000 for the entire United Kingdom.

(Sources: bbc.co.uk)